Maximum California Earthquake Portfolio
Geographic distribution
Top five counties account for 93% of TIV; Los Angeles and Monterey together account for 82%. Monterey holds the largest property count (mid-market wood-frame residential); Los Angeles holds the largest TIV.
TIV Share by County
| County | Properties | Total TIV | % of TIV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 140 | $2.25B | 48.8% |
| Monterey | 977 | $1.55B | 33.6% |
| San Francisco | 5 | $232.9M | 5.0% |
| Santa Barbara | 15 | $173.2M | 3.8% |
| Santa Cruz | 12 | $85.0M | 1.8% |
| All Other (25) | 83 | $311.6M | 6.8% |
TIV distribution and construction
56.6% of properties carry TIV under $1M; 1.4% of properties account for 22% of TIV. Wood frame is the dominant construction type at 88% of count.
TIV Distribution by Band
Construction Type
Vintage distribution
Year built relative to California seismic-code milestones. From the 1,143-property sub-sample with year-built data (87% LightBox coverage). Median year built: 1966.
Properties by Construction Era (n=968)
| Era | Properties | % of Subset | Code Era |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-1933 | 81 | 8.4% | Pre-Long Beach quake |
| 1933 - 1971 | 436 | 45.0% | Pre-Sylmar |
| 1971 - 1994 | 293 | 30.3% | Pre-Northridge |
| 1994 - 2008 | 97 | 10.0% | Post-Northridge |
| 2008+ | 61 | 6.3% | Modern IBC |
Building footprint and orientation
Per-property building geometry derived from satellite footprint extraction. Long-axis azimuth, axes, area, and height are reported on a 1,296-property sub-sample (98%) with successful footprint extraction.
Building Height (n=920)
Aspect Ratio (long ÷ short, n=999)
Footprint Area (n=999)
Distribution shows a mild bias toward east-west and ESE-WNW alignment, consistent with the LA / Monterey street-grid mix. Orientation can affect torsional response under non-axial ground motion.
Seismic retrofit status
50 confirmed retrofits to date. Additional properties are being validated as we integrate a newly discovered datasource.
Status
| Status | Count | TIV |
|---|---|---|
| Seismically retrofitted | 50 (4.1%) | $498M |
| Not retrofitted or unconfirmed | 1,182 (95.9%) | $4.11B |
Retrofit Rate by Fault Distance
| Distance | Retrofit Rate |
|---|---|
| < 1 km | 4.0% |
| 1 - 5 km | 3.0% |
| 5 - 10 km | 10.2% |
| 10 - 25 km | 2.7% |
| > 25 km | 0.0% |
Distance to nearest mapped fault
Computed against California Geological Survey fault traces for the 1,320-property enriched set. Median distance: 1.16 km; mean: 2.53 km. The bearing distribution reflects the strike of the San Andreas system.
Properties by Fault Distance (n=1,320)
| Distance to Nearest Fault | Properties | % of Subset |
|---|---|---|
| < 1 km | 624 | 47.3% |
| 1 - 5 km | 538 | 40.8% |
| 5 - 10 km | 112 | 8.5% |
| 10 - 25 km | 36 | 2.7% |
| > 25 km | 10 | 0.8% |
Top Fault Exposures by TIV
Fault age — CGS classification of the nearest fault
CGS classifies faults by most-recent rupture age. The age of the nearest fault is one input to seismic hazard. Two-thirds of the enriched set sits closest to a Quaternary fault; about one-third is closest to a Late Quaternary fault.
Distribution by Age Class (n=1,320)
| Age Class of Nearest Fault | Properties | % | Hazard Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holocene / Historical (< 11,700 yr) | 10 | 0.8% | Highest |
| Late Quaternary (< 130,000 yr) | 415 | 31.4% | Moderate |
| Quaternary (< 1.6 M yr) | 895 | 67.8% | Background |
Majelyn Earthquake Risk Score (MERS)
A proprietary 0-100 risk score grounded in peer-reviewed research and industry-accepted weighting factors. MERS combines ground motion intensity (USGS NSHM 2023), fault proximity, site conditions (ASCE 7-22 Vs30 / NEHRP), CGS geologic hazard zones, and structure vulnerability. Higher scores indicate higher modeled seismic risk.
Score Legend & Portfolio Distribution (n=1,320)
Score Distribution (10-point bins)
Sub-Score Composition (Mean, 0-100, n=1,320)
Sub-Score Breakdown
Ground Motion saturates near the cap (California baseline seismicity). Geologic Hazards mean is lifted by the 70 properties (5.3%) inside a CGS overlay zone; the median is 0 because the rest sit outside.
Site class — per-site Vs30 and NEHRP classification
Per-site Vs30 derived from CGS MS-48 (Wills 2015 / Thompson 2022 30m raster). NEHRP class assigned per ASCE 7-22. Reported on the full 1,320-property enriched set. Median Vs30 is 447 m/s; range 226 - 935 m/s.
NEHRP Class Distribution
| NEHRP Class | Vs30 Range (m/s) | Properties | % of Subset |
|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 540 - 760 | 3 | 0.2% |
| C | 366 - 540 | 150 | 11.4% |
| CD | 263 - 366 | 642 | 48.6% |
| D | 213 - 263 | 442 | 33.5% |
| DE | 152 - 213 | 83 | 6.3% |
Eighty-three properties (6.3%) classify as DE — soft soil. None classify as E, and none triggered the ASCE 7-22 site-specific analysis threshold (E with reference PGA ≥ 0.4 g).
Design ground motion — USGS NSHM
USGS National Seismic Hazard Model — 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, at NSHM reference site class BC. Reported on the 1,320-property enriched set.
PGA Band Distribution (n=1,320)
Note on Fpga:Above ~0.4 g reference PGA, ASCE 7-22 caps the Fpga site-amplification factor at 1.0 for all site classes (nonlinear soil response). Site-adjusted PGA tracks reference PGA in this portfolio's range.
State seismic hazard zone overlays
California Geological Survey Seismic Hazard Zones — Alquist-Priolo (active fault), liquefaction, and earthquake-induced landslide. Computed for the 1,320-property enriched set.
Properties in CGS Zones (n=1,320)
| Zone | In Zone | % of Subset |
|---|---|---|
| Liquefaction | 45 | 3.4% |
| Alquist-Priolo (active fault) | 8 | 0.6% |
| Earthquake-induced landslide | 18 | 1.4% |
| In any CGS zone | 70 | 5.3% |
Wildfire exposure — NIFC perimeters and USFS WHP
Two signals are reported. The first is point-in-polygon intersection with NIFC historical fire perimeters. The second is USFS Wildfire Hazard Potential at the county level.
NIFC Historical Fire Perimeter (n=1,320)
| Signal | Properties | % of Subset |
|---|---|---|
| Inside historical fire perimeter | 4 | 0.3% |
| Within 1 km of any perimeter | 55 | 4.2% |
Inside-perimeter intersections fall in the 2025 Palisades Fire footprint (Pacific Palisades / Malibu). Within-1km matches are predominantly Palisades-adjacent.
USFS Wildfire Hazard Potential by County (n=1,320)
| County | Props | Direct | Indirect |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Luis Obispo | 8 | 41.3% | 46.6% |
| Santa Cruz County | 16 | 36.7% | 33.3% |
| Monterey County | 1,048 | 29.5% | 23.5% |
| Santa Barbara | 15 | 25.5% | 40.9% |
| Riverside County | 4 | 17.2% | 42.9% |
| Los Angeles | 136 | 5.0% | 14.6% |
| San Francisco | 7 | 0.4% | 3.0% |
What's in the numbers
- Headline portfolio totals (TIV, county, TIV distribution, construction) are computed on the 1,232 source SOV line items from the original portfolio file.
- Fault proximity, fault age, NSHM ground motion, CGS overlays, building geometry, per-site Vs30 / NEHRP, and MERS (composite, sub-scores, flags) are computed on the 1,320-property enriched set. The enriched count exceeds the SOV count because Mapbox occasionally resolved one source row to multiple distinct buildings (correctly).
- Vs30 source: CGS MS-48 (Wills 2015 / Thompson 2022 30m raster).
- Fault traces: California Geological Survey.
- Wildfire signals: NIFC point-in-polygon plus a 1 km buffer; USFS WHP at the county level.
- Building geometry: derived from satellite footprint extraction (azimuth, axes, area, height).